WDXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) 
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.6S 68.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 637 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM 
HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT STRUCTURE WITH A CLOUD DENSE OVERCAST BUT 
IS NOW DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE IN THE AMSR2 PASS AT 292109Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80KTS 
IS BASED ON THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 AND IS 
SUPPORTED BY THE WIND SPEED PRODUCT FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 
AMSR2 IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A MAX WIND OF 74 KTS THREE HOURS PRIOR TO 
SYNOPTIC TIME.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 85 KTS AT 292045Z
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 300015Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE TRACK WILL BEGIN A
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. AROUND
TAU 120, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN PUSH 08S IN A SLIGHTLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 100 KTS BY TAU 72.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY AROUND 90-100 KTS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK WITH NAVGEM AS AN OUTLIER TO THE
SOUTH, BUT STILL SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK DIRECTION WESTWARD
AS THE REST OF THE MODELS. THOUGH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN 24 HOURS AGO, THERE REMAINS A MODEST CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 150
NM AT TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GFS
AND EC INDICATING AN INTENSITY AROUND 80-85 UP TO TAU 72 FOLLOWED
BY A SLIGHT JUMP TO 90-95 KTS AFTERWARDS. HWRF IS INDICATING
SOMETHING SIMILAR BUT JUMPS TO 110 KTS AT TAU 96. THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERALL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODELS
POSSIBLY UNDERESTIMATING INTENSITY DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE
STORM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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