WDXS31 PGTW 290300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) 
WARNING NR 005 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 71.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 670 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF CIRRUS OVER THE
CENTER. THIS SINGLE AREA OF DENSE CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN A
282324Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON PGTW FIX POSITION AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES DUE TO A 281709Z ASCAT-C WINDSPEED
SHOWING 50-55 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 290015Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SYSTEM
STARTING TO INTENSIFY WHILE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SHORT WEAKENING
TREND BEFORE BEGINNING INTENSIFICATION. PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW 95
KTS VERSUS PREVIOUS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS
DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AROUND TAU 24,
TURNING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND
CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AROUND TAU 72,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KTS
AT TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK IN THAT IT IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAVGEM, UEMN AND AFUM INDICATING 
SHARP, UNREALISTIC POLEWARD TURNS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 WHILE 
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UP TO TAU 120. THIS 
LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM 
BEGINNING A PHASE OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY EITHER A 
GRADUAL WEAKENING OR REMAINING AT A GENERALLY STEADY INTENSITY THE
EXCEPTION IS HWRF WHICH WEAKENS THE SYSTEM BEFORE BEGINNING
INTENSIFICATION. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW
4.JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: OUTDATED SUMMARY VALUES IN 2.
//
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