WDXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING 
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.5S 44.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 212 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S HAS RE-EMERGED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL OVER THE PAST EIGHT HOURS AND IS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AS
IT TRACKS AWAY FROM MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES WITH A DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 231054Z AMSR2 36GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO AN ELONGATED, DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW TO
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. TC 07S WILL
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS AT TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND
VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY HIGHER (50 KNOTS) BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18. AFTER TAU 18, TC 07S WILL TRACK INLAND AND
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE
OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES
(EPS AND GEFS) ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE TRACK
PHILOSOPHY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45
TO 50 KNOTS FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 18 WITH STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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