WDPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (CODY) WARNING NR 
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.6S 175.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 434 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM WITH 
MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST REGION OF THE LLC. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED UPON 
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 121000Z METOP-B AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PGTW AND HIGHER 
THAN ADT DVORAK AND SATCON ESTIMATES, AND REMAINS LOWER THAN OTHER 
FORECASTING AGENCIES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL SSTS, LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION, 
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 05P IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   PHFO: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   NFFN: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 121001Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 121310Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS EXPECTED THE COOLER WATER TO THE SOUTH IS
BEGINNING TO HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 05P. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE 
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND START 
WRAPPING DRIER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. THE 
DRIER AIR, HIGHER VWS TO THE SOUTH, AND COOLER SSTS WILL WANE 
HEAVILY ON THE SYSTEM. TC 05P WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC 
ZONE TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THAT SAME 
REGION. THE CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WILL 
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT A PEAK OF 50KTS, WHEREBY 
IT WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY DECREASE TO 45KTS BY TAU 36 AND BEYOND. DURING 
TAUS 24 AND 36, TC 05P WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANDED WIND FIELD, AND BY TAU 48 THE TC WILL 
HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH A SPREAD OF ONLY 35NM. ONCE THE 
SYSTEM ENCROACHES UPON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG-
TRACK SPREAD INCREASES WHILE THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS MINIMAL TO A 
MERE 44NM WITH THE EXCLUSION OF NAVGEM. REGARDLESS, THERE IS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST TO THE WEST 
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24 OFFSETTING NAVGEM, AND ONLY 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES 
TRANSITION INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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