WDPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (CODY) WARNING NR 
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.8S 173.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 379 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEGREE OF WRAP AND DEEP CONVECTION AND A
LARGE, RAGGED 40-NM BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN MSI. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND ADT DVORAK 
ESTIMATES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50KTS IS 
AVERAGED FROM AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT WITH MEDIUM TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL SSTS, 
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST, AND IMPROVING POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
STR TO THE EAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 112340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC CODY WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STR FOR THE WHOLE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
MORE POLEWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE AND SSTS WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE, SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION UP TO 
TAU 24. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL 
TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 48 WILL 
TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING 
WIND FIELD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT DRASTICALLY SHOOTS THE VORTEX
WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. REGARDLESS, THERE IS HIGH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 24 TO OFFSET NAVGEM. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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