WDPS31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (CODY) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.8S 173.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 346 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WRAPPING AND DEEPENED CONVECTION INTO A LARGE, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC FEATURE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 111740Z GPM IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND ADT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50KTS TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED EIR SIGNATURE AND THE PRESENCE OF A MICROWAVE EYE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MEDIUM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL SSTS, COOL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST, AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 111347Z CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 111740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC CODY WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STR FOR THE WHOLE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES MORE POLEWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE AND SSTS WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE, SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 48 WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN