WDPS32 PGTW 111500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING 
NR 010 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 139.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 374 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY WEST WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS PLACED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED UPON A TIMELY BULLSEYE PASS FROM AN 
111209Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 06P REMAINS IN AN 
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY 
MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SST IN THE GULF OF 
CARPENTARIA. TC TIFFANY IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   ADRM: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 111240Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC TIFFANY WILL CONTINUE TRACKING QUICKLY
WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF
MARIA ISLAND JUST NORTH OF THE COX RIVER INLET, BY TAU 12. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY OVERLAND. AFTERWARD, THE CONTINUAL LAND
INTERACTION ALONG WITH INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE RAPID DISSIPATION
ON OR BEFORE TAU 36 JUST AS THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY
A MODEST 32NM OF VARYING DIFFERENCE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE OVERLAND
NVGM, AFUM, AND UEMN MOVE DRASTICALLY TO THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE
ENVELOPE AND OFFER THE QUICKEST TURN WHILE GFS AND AEMN REMAIN ON
THE RIGHT MARGIN WITH THE POLEWARD TURN OCCURRING MUCH LATER AND
AEMN INDICATING A MORE STRAIGHT LINE TOWARDS THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE
GULF THEN MOVING SOUTHWEST ONLY AFTER TAU 36. OVERALL, THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP AND SUMMARY.//
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