WDPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (CODY) WARNING NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.2S 173.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 338 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH RAGGED CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND THE LLC. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL
EVEN WITH DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLC AND AN 111345Z ATMS 165GHZ IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND
HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A MAJORITY OF MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND
MORE IN LINE WITH PGTW FIX AND A PARTIAL 111025Z ASCAT METOP-B
IMAGE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE PAST SIX-HOURS INTO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
AREA WITH WARM SSTS, LOW TO MODERATE VWS, AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   NFFN: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 111340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC CODY WILL REMAIN ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK
AND ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE 
POLEWARD SIDE IS INDICATIVE OF THE COL REGION JUST SOUTH OF THE 
SYSTEM. TC 05P IS ONLY DUE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50KTS BY TAU 
12 ONCE IT COMPLETELY ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER 
VWS TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STIFLE ANY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. TC 
CODY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN TAUS 36-48 
AND REACH COOLER WATERS. CONCURRENTLY, TC CODY WILL BEGIN 
TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW, COMPLETING TRANSITION BY 
TAU 72 INTO A STRONG 45-KT COLD-CORE LOW. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL 
CONTINUE EXPANDING ITS WIND FIELD AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN NEW 
ZEALAND REGION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH ONLY A 90NM DIFFERENCE FROM THE FAR LEFT OUTLIER OF NVGM 
AND RIGHT OUTLIER OF ECMF, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY RIGHT SIDE OF MODEL CONSENSUS. 
INTENSITY AIDS LEND ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS THE SYSTEM UNRAVELS 
AND TRANSITIONS TO A COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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