WDPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (CODY) WARNING NR 
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.9S 173.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 334 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND THE ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH RAGGED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE
LLC. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL EVEN WITH
DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CYCLONE AND HIGHER VWS ON MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN SIDE. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF AN 
110420Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE AND THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A MAJORITY OF MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND MORE IN
LINE WITH PGTW FIX AND THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE (ADT).
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE PAST SIX-HOURS INTO A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AREA WITH WARM SSTS, MODERATE VWS, AND WEAK RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TC 05P IS TRACING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   NFFN: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 110440Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 110810Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05P WILL REMAIN ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK
AND ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE SLOW-MOTION TOWARD THE 
POLEWARD SIDE IS INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND WILL REACH 
A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER VWS AND COLDER 
AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STIFLE ANY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. TC 
05P IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COOLER WATERS 
NEAR TAUS 36-48. THE INTERACTION IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CAUSE 
EROSION AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC CODY WILL 
FULLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72 AND BECOME A 50-
KT COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH A MERE 100NM DIFFERENCE FROM THE FAR LEFT OUTLIER OF
NVGM AND RIGHT OUTLIER OF ECMF, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY RIGHT SIDE OF MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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