WDPS32 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 139.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 374 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY EAST WITH INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED EXTRAPOLATION FROM BOTH THE 110354Z AMSR2 89GHZ AND 36GHZ IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED LOOSELY ON AN AVERAGE FROM MULTIPLE AGENCY AND THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 06P IS IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SST IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC TIFFANY IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 110418Z CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 110710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 22-23 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE QUICK WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF MARIA ISLAND JUST NORTH OF THE COX RIVER INLET, BY TAU 24. THE SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD LAND THE CONTINUAL LAND INTERACTION ALONG WITH INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE RAPID DISSIPATION ON OR BEFORE TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VARYING DEGREES FOR THE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARD THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. NVGM, AFUM, AND UEMN ARE ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE AND OFFER THE QUICKEST TURN WHILE GFS AND AEMN REMAIN ON THE RIGHT MARGIN WITH THE POLEWARD TURN OCCURRING MUCH LATER. OVERALL, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN