WDPS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING 
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.6S 140.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 133 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS PARTLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 102336 ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS AND SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 06P IS IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY STRONG
WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SST IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 102340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 25 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC TIFFANY WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD IN THE GOC
AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR WILTON, NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, AROUND TAU 30.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING
VWS WILL CAUSE RAPID EROSION LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
VARYING DEGREES IN THE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARD THE TERMINATION OF THE 
FORECAST. NVGM AND UEMN ARE ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE AND 
OFFER THE EARLIEST TURN WHILE GFS AND AEMN ARE ON THE RIGHT MARGIN 
WITH THE POLEWARD TURN OCCURRING MUCH LATER. OVERALL, THERE IS 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO 
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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