WDPS31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (CODY) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.0S 173.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 327 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONVECTION BEGAN TO RE-FORM OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL EVEN AS THE SOUTHERN FEEDER BANDS APPEAR TO BE FRAYING WITH EXPOSURE TO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS, AS EVIDENCED BY TRANSVERSE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED LLC FEATURE IN THE 102153Z AMSU-B IMAGE AND A SEMI-CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 102107Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA WITH WARM SSTS, MEDIUM VWS, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 102154Z CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 102340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: CHANGED TERMINAL TC PHASE TRANSITION FROM SUBTROPICAL TO EXTRA-TROPICAL. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC CODY WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE NEW STORM MOTION BECOMING MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL OFFSET THE VWS AND ALLOW A SLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 55KTS AT TAUS 24-48. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, IT WILL COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72 WILL BECOME A 50-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN