WDPS31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (CODY) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.8S 174.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 288 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEGRADED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE DEGRADED EIR SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG VWS AND A COLD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 101317Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 101740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05P WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE NEW STORM MOTION BECOMING MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL OFFSET THE VWS AND ALLOW A SLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 55KTS AT TAUS 24-48. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, IT WILL COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72 WILL BECOME A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN