WDPS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING 
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.8S 141.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 127 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS RECOVERED ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION AFTER IT EXITED THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA AND ENTERED THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM ABOM. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5, SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING KOWANYAMA AIRPORT 45NM SE, AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE IMPROVED EIR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC
06P IS NOW IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE MODERATE
VWS OFFSET BY STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SST IN THE GOC.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR TO THE SOUTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 25 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC TIFFANY WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD IN THE GOC
AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR WILTON, NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, AROUND TAU 30.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING
VWS WILL CAUSE RAPID EROSION LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 170NM BY TAU 48 WITH GFS AND AEMN ON A 
CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE 
REST, INCLUDING NVGM AND ECMF, OFFERING A SOUTHWARD TURN TOWARD TAU 
48. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS 
LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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