WDPS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING 
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.7S 142.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 218 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: XX FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF DISORGANIZED
FLARING CONVECTION. CIMSS GENERATED SHEAR ANALYSIS REVEALS ABOUT 20
KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE REGION, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
SATELLITE DEPICTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE LACK OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OVER LAND OR
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER MEAN
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH ONLY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06P IS TRACKING STEADILY WEST ACROSS THE
CAPE YORK PENINSULA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND AT THE 1200Z HOUR
IS ROUGHLY HALF WAY ACROSS. 06P IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS, THEN MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A STEADY SPEED OF
ABOUT 10 KNOTS, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG
STR CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF GROOTE EYLANDT BY TAU 36, AND MAKE A SECOND
LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF THE GULF PRIOR TO TAU 48. A WEAK
TROUGH IN MID TO UPPER-LEVELS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT AFTER TAU
48, AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TURN GRADUALLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE VERY WARM, HIGH OHC WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, IT WILL
BEGIN TO STEADILY INTENSIFY ONCE MORE. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY HIGH
EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM, AND SLOW THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. THE SYSTEM IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO REACH
60 KNOTS BEFORE THE SECOND LANDFALL, THOUGH IF IT CAN QUICKLY
RECONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY, IT COULD FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR AND REACH
MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING LAND. ONCE ASHORE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, ULTIMATELY
DISSIPATING OVER LAND NO LATER THAN TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE TURNS SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 48 THOUGH THE GFS, HWRF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK, ONLY CURVING SOUTHWEST ONCE
PASSING JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. THE JTWC TRACK LIES ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE MAJOR GROUPING OF THE MODELS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THROUGH TAU 48, THEN MEDIUM THEREAFTER. THE MAJORITY OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE SHAPE OF THE INTENSITY TREND,
THOUGH DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE GULF.
GFS IS THE MOST BEARISH, WITH A PEAK OF ONLY 35 KNOTS, WHILE
COAMPS-TC ON THE OTHER HAND IS THE MOST BULLISH, PEAKING AT OVER
100 KNOTS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFS
BASED COAMPS-TC SUPPORT A 50-55 KNOT PEAK. THE JTWC FORECAST PEAKS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, BUT NOT AS HIGH AS
THE COAMPS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGHOUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING OF RECONSOLIDATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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