WDPS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING 
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.6S 143.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 180 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: XX FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PRINCESS CHARLOTTE
BAY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS DECOUPLED, WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR YARRADEN,
AUSTRALIA, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS AND CONVECTION HAVE SHEARED
OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. A DEARTH OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE
REGION, AND THE LACK OF ANY OBJECTIVE OR SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES DUE TO THE CENTER BEING OVER LAND MAKES INTENSITY
ESTIMATION CHALLENGING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, AT A GENEROUS 45 KNOTS, BASED ON AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND OVER LAND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE STEERING PATTERN
ARE EXPECTED AND TC 06P WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST HOWEVER, THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING FOR A SUBTLE
TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST BY TAU 120, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. IN THE NEAR-TERM THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY THE LLCC MOVES ACROSS THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA, HOW MUCH
WEAKENING OCCURS WHILE OVER LAND AND HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM WILL
RECONSOLIDATE ONCE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 24 AT 30 KNOTS, THEN QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND BEGIN TO INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM, HIGH OHC WATERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL CORE UNDER STRAIGHT LINE
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT ONLY SLOW AND STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE SOUTH SIDE OF GROOTE EYLANDT BETWEEN TAUS 36
AND 48, THEN MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA NEAR TAU 48. ONCE ASHORE, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE BY
TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, WITH A
150NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE NAVGEM ON THE SOUTH AND THE GFS ON THE
NORTH. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONTAINED IN A TIGHTLY PACKED
ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE TWO OUTLIERS, AND THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT DISPLAYS A
WIDE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL PEAK VALUES, RANGING BETWEEN 35 KNOTS FOR
THE GFS AND 75 KNOTS FOR THE COAMPS-TC. THE JTWC FORECAST DECREASES
TO A LOWER VALUE THAN THE GUIDANCE WHILE OVER LAND IN THE
NEAR-TERM, THEN LIES ABOVE ALL BUT THE COAMPS-TC THROUGH TAU 48.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
AMOUNT OF WEAKENING OVER LAND WHICH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
ULTIMATE DOWN STREAM INTENSITY. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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