WDPS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 144.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 176 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 091904Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF CAPE MELVILLE,
HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS SITE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TOO FAR FROM THE WEIPA AND CAIRNS
RADARS THEREFORE THE CENTER AND DEVELOPING EYE IS NOT CLEARLY
EVIDENT AS OF THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES AND ABRF
DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL
OUTFLOW OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND, SPECIFICALLY CAPE MELVILLE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 091740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO A STRONG STR
TO THE SOUTH THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO MORE WESTWARD.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
STR ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. THE STR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF CAPE MELVILLE AND OVER THE
PRINCESS CHARLOTTE BAY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 60-65 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AT TAU 12. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA THEN REINTENSIFY QUICKLY PERHAPS RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS
OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, OVER WATER, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A 75-80
KNOT PEAK DUE TO VERY WARM SST VALUES (30-32C). BY TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND AND WEAKEN TO 65-70 KNOTS. THEN IT WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE (EPS AND
GEFS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS
OVER LAND, THEREFORE, LOW CONFIDENCE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK
INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE HWRF FORECAST WHICH SHOWS A PEAK NEAR
90 KNOTS.     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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