WDPS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.9S 146.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 180 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WHILE THE LLCC IS OBSCURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION EIR ANIMATION, AS WELL
AS AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 090846Z SSMIS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE PRESENCE OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -90C AND SEVERAL INNER CORE LIGHTNING BURSTS SUPPORT
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY
INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 50 KNOTS. AGENCY FIXES ARE SPREAD
BETWEEN T2.5 (35 KTS) AND T3.5 (55 KTS) WHILE THE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES ARE CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE SPREAD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE OF THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN LIGHT OF A 090805Z SMOS PASS WHICH SHOWED AN
AREA OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 091140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE TIFFANY CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 06P WILL MAKE LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF CAPE FLATTERY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A SLIGHT JOG SOUTHWARD WILL INCUR A LANDFALL ON CAPE
FLATTERY CLOSER TO TAU 12. THE ULTIMATE PEAK NEAR-TERM INTENSITY
WILL DEPEND UPON THE LANDFALL POINT AND TIMING, WITH AN EARLIER
LANDFALL RESULTING IN A LOWER PEAK. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH CIMSS SHEAR ESTIMATES DOWN
TO 15-20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR. BEING IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM
MOTION, RELATIVE SHEAR IS EVEN LOWER, RESULTING IN THE
INTENSIFICATION SEEN THUS FAR. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REACH
60 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THOUGH IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER
TO THE NORTH OF CAPE FLATTERY, IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A BIT
STRONGER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE ASHORE THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION, THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO EMERGE
INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AROUND TAU
36. ONCE OVER THE VERY WARM, SHALLOW WATERS OF THE GULF, THE SYSTEM
WILL REINTENSIFY, REACHING A SECOND PEAK OF 65 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO
A SECOND LANDFALL AT GROOTE EYLANDT NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD IN A GRACEFUL ARC INTO A BREAK IN THE
STEERING RIDGE, ULTIMATELY MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
AND STEADILY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM TO THE SOUTH, AND THE GFS
WHICH CONTINUES TO TAKE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AT AN EXTREMELY FAST
RATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS CLOSELY PACKED ABOUT
THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK LIES ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTEST GROUPING OF MODELS AND SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN WHICH IS BEING PULLED SOUTH BY THE NAVGEM.
OVERALL TRACK CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72, AND LOW
THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, ALL
SUPPORT THE FORECAST TREND LINE, THOUGH DIFFER ON THE PEAKS AND
TROUGHS OF THE FORECAST. THE COAMPS-TC FORECAST REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE, WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE JTWC FORECAST MATCHES
THE COAMPS-TC THROUGH TAU 36, THEN IS BELOW THE PEAK COAMPS-TC PEAK
OF 90 KNOTS, MORE CLOSELY TRACKING THE HWRF THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TRENDING TO LOW. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN