WDPN31 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (RAI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.1N 131.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 333 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPER AND MORE SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A DIMPLE FEATURE, INDICATIVE OF A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 150417Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE EYE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH THE DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. TY 28W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, VERY WARM SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 80 KTS AT 150432Z CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 150540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON RAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SURIGAO, PHILIPPINES BY TAU 24 THEN TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS WILL REDUCE IT TO 80KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER IT DRIFTS INTO THE OPEN WARM WATERS OF THE SCS, AIDED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 95KTS BY TAU 72 WILL OCCUR. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND EXPOSURE TO THE DRY NORTHEAST SURGE IN THE SCS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 60KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT HEADS TOWARD HAINAN. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF LAND INTERACTION, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN