WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (RAI) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 8.9N 132.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 157 NM NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL
ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH SPRIAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ASSESSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A MICROWAVE 
EYE FEATURE IN THE A 142217Z SSMIS PASS, AS WELL AS MULTI 
AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES 
AND CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. TS 28W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 80 KTS AT 142218Z
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 150040Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS RAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK,
MAKING LANDFALL OVER SURIGAO, PHILIPPINES, JUST AFTER TAU 24, TRACK
ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO, AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS)
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A PEAK INTENSITY SET AT 90 KTS BY TAU
24. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WILL
SLIGHTLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 85 KTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. THE
WARM SST IN THE SCS AND CONTINUED LOW VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL PROMOTE A PEAK OF 105 KTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, THE
INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE
IN THE SCS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 90 KTS BY TAU
120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT ON TRACK PROGRESSION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO
TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AND HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS (ICNW). THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL MAY STILL OCCUR CONSIDERING THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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