WDPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (RUBY) WARNING NR 
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.0S 167.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 73 NM EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME RAGGED AFTER IT TRACKED ACROSS NEW CALEDONIA WITH THE
MAIN CONVECTION OFFSET EASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED
STATE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG VWS, COOL SST, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFFSET BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 140540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC RUBY WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
UNDER THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION TO 50KTS OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HRS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AS THE COMBINED EFFECT OF HIGH VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
AND COOL SST PREVAIL. BY TAU 36, TC RUBY WILL BECOME A SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN