WDPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 157.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 702 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A STEADILY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH STRONG BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON A PARTIAL 112309Z ASCAT-C IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF CIRCULATION
CENTER AND A BROAD WIND FIELD OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING 150 NM
EAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 112340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST UP UNTIL TAU 24, AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING
SLIGHTLY MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE TAKES A MORE
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL
DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AROUND TAU 72, THE
TRACK SPEED WILL INCREASE AS TC 03P BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY SUBTROPICAL. A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KTS SOMETIME AROUND TAU 48. AROUND TAU 72, THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 96, TC 03P WILL WEAKEN TO AN INTENSITY OF 
60 KNOTS AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO TRACK FORECAST WITH ONLY AN 80 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48,
AT WHICH POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BUT AGREE ON A CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK DIRECTION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT, WITH MOST MODELS DEPICTING A PERIOD OF MODERATE OR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION ENDING BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60. MODEL
PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY RANGES BETWEEN 55 AND 80 KTS BEFORE
WEAKENING AROUND TAU 72. OF NOTE, THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PREDICTION AID (RIPA) WAS TRIGGERED FOR THIS WARNING CYCLE.
THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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