WDPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE) WARNING 
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.8S 156.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 767 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TILTED
SYSTEM WITH TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS EACH WRAPPING INTO TWO LARGE,
PARTIALLY MERGED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITAL POSITION AND
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS ARE BASED ON THE PGTW POSITION FIX
AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST UP UNTIL TAU 48, AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING
MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE TAKES A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 120, THE TRACK SPEED WILL
INCREASE AS TC 03P GETS ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW A STEADY INCREASE IN INTENSITY FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 75 KTS SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72.
AROUND TAU 90, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO TRACK FORECAST WITH ONLY A 90 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72, AT
WHICH POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BUT AGREE ON A CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK DIRECTION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT, WITH MOST MODELS DEPICTING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION UP UNTIL TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF MAINTAINED
INTENSITY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 65 AND 80 KTS BEFORE WEAKENING AROUND
TAU 96. THE OUTLIER IS HWRF, WHICH ONLY PEAKS AT 55 KTS. THEREFORE,
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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