WDIO31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING 
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.7N 85.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 457 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL
032337Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). RECENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES TC JAWAD HAS BEGUN TO
TRANSIT NORTHWARD AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF BEING QUASI-STATIONARY.
TC 05B IS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
EXTRAPOLATING FROM MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 032006Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 032115Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC JAWAD IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. BY TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY. AFTER THIS TIME THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
ENCOUNTER UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH WILL PRODUCE STEADY WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. AS TC 05B
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50
KNOTS WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY TAU 72 IN THE VICINITY OF
KOLKATA, INDIA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW)
INDICATING A TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA OR SLIGHTLY
INLAND. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
MEDIUM. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A SLIGHT SPREAD IN MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF
THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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