WDIO31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.8N 85.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLC. A 031101Z
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED BUT
BROAD CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. TC 05B HAS CONTINUED
TO STRUGGLE DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLC AND THE
NORTHWESTWARD TILT IN THE VORTEX. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
REMAINED ROBUST WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 030915Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24 WHILE STEADILY
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH 25-30 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH WILL PRODUCE STEADY WEAKENING
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. AS TC 05B
RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50
KNOTS WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96, PERHAPS
SOONER. THE REMNANTS SHOULD TRACK INTO BANGLADESH BUT COULD ALSO
STALL OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL.     

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN IMPROVED AGREEMENT
WITH THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATING A TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST OF INDIA OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF (EPS) ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHT
GROUPING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS MEDIUM.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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