WDIO31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.2N 85.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 536 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 030714Z AMSR2
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 05B HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE DUE TO
THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLC AND THE NORTHWESTWARD TILT IN THE
VORTEX. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED ROBUST WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 030615Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36 WHILE STEADILY
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE COAST OF INDIA AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT RECURVES
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. NEAR
TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS WITH STRONG VWS AFTER TAU
60 (40-60 KNOTS). 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATING A TRACK ALONG THE
EASTERN COAST OF INDIA OR SLIGHTLY INLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS
AND UKMET, THE EASTERN OUTLIERS, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM
UNREALISTICALLY INTO THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED
BY THE ECMWF (EPS) ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHT GROUPING
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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