WDXS31 PGTW 010900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.2S 102.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 366 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT HAD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME STAGNANT WITH ITS PROGRESSION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 010258Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 30-35 KTS WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 02S WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO OUTFLOW ALOFT TO ENCOURAGE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING TO 30 KNOTS OR LESS BY TAU 24. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DECAY SHIPS MODELS (BOTH NVGM AND AFUM VERSIONS) WHICH ONLY SHOW MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO MODEL SUPPORT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TC 02S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN