WDXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WARNING 
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.9S 106.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 216 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE CENTER UNDER
CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF, AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANDS IN THE CLEAR, DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED MSI SUBSEQUENT TO THE 0000Z HOUR SHOWS
THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE AREA SHEARING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATING INTO TWO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. A 232313Z GPM
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED LLCC TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, BUT PROVIDED ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE, BUT BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. AS
EVIDENCED BY THE RAGGED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, THE ENVIRONMENT
IS STEADILY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE, WITH DECREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT
AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FAR TO
THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 232345Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 232340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SURGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE NEAR-TERM MOTION OF TC 01S HAS BEEN
EXCEEDINGLY SLOW AS THE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE
NEAR-TERM, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT AND ALLOW FOR TC 01S
TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN, AS EVIDENCED BY ITS
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING CONVECTION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ALBEIT
SLOWLY, THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TAU 24, THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND A STRONG SURGE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND
HWRF, WHICH SHOW A TRACK SOUTH INTO THE RIDGE, THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
EXACT INITIAL POSITION AND THEREFORE THE RECENT TRACK MOTION, LEADS
TO ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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