WDXS31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.9S 106.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 230945Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 26-27C. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 231140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01S IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE DUE, LARGELY, TO THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. TC 01S SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS WELL AS WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A STRONG STR, THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND LEADING TO DISSIPATION WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN