WDXS31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.0S 106.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 217 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 230627Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND, THEREFORE, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS AND IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW AND APRF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 26-27C. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 230600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01S IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE DUE, LARGELY, TO THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BUT HAS MAINTAINED WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 01S SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS WELL AS WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A STRONG STR, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (NORTHERN OUTLIER), THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND LEADING TO DISSIPATION WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN