WDXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WARNING 
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.0S 107.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AT ANALYSIS TIME. ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL OUTER
BANDS AND A 222108Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
SET AT 40 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON THE CONGRUENCE OF OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES AT OR NEAR 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE VICINITY OF
PADDY REMAINS OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SSTS. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED
ENCROACHMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST IS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CORE.
ADDITIONALLY, HWRF AND GFS POTENTIAL VORTICITY CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG DOWNSHEAR (SOUTHEAST) TILT OF THE CORE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTING AN
EROSION OF THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP, AS WELL
AS BY A SYNTHETIC GFS HODOGRAPH INDICATING A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
VECTOR OF ABOUT 15 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 221838Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 222340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC PADDY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY
AND FROM HERE ON OUT WILL HOLD STEADY FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE
BEGINNING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR
LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH. A SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS
EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE STEERING LEVEL
LOWERS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY ALONG THE 26C
ISOTHERM, WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT OCEAN HEAT FLUXES AND INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SAME TIME, MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
DRYING AND A REDUCTION IN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AFTER TAU 36, WITH FULL DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN
TAU 72.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO PUSH THE SYSTEM
DIRECTLY INTO THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE, WHICH LOOPS THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU
24. WITH BOTH TRACKERS DISCOUNTED, THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN AN ENVELOPE THAT EXPANDS TO 95NM BY TAU 72.
THE JTWC TRACK LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS (MINUS NAVGEM) MEAN THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS CLUSTERED WITHIN 5-10 KNOTS OF THE MEAN,
WHICH THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY TRACKS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN