WDXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.9S 107.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 235 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED
AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, WITH TWO DISTINCT
REGIONS OF FLARING CONVECTION, ONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST,
DOWN THE SHEAR VECTOR. A 221745Z ATMS 88GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED
A WEAK LOW EMISSIVITY REGION LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION, WITH FRAGMENTED LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE ASSESSED LLCC, AND LENT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE, AND
ALIGNED WITH THE ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES. TC PADDY IS LOCATED IN
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SSTS, LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, PRIMARILY ABOVE 400MB IS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH
FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDING A BIT OF A BRAKING FACTOR ON
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMBINATION OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 221423Z
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 221740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC PADDY HAS TURNED SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS FROM
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP NER CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA, TO THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP STR CENTERED FAR TO
THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS, THE STR WILL ASSUME THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, AND THE TRACK WILL STEADY UP ON A
WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12. SLIGHT VARIATIONS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF DUE WEST ARE EXPECTED AS TC PADDY TRACKS WESTWARD DUE TO
SMALL VARIATIONS IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STR. AS FAR AS
INTENSITY GOES, IN THE NEAR-TERM NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED
AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ABOVE 400MB LIMITS CONVECTIVE
CONSOLIDATION AND OFFSETS THE LOW VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY
TAU 36, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT, MARKING THE BEGINNING OF
A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
CONVERGENT, THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS, AND THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT, LEADING TO DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 72. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH
THE NOTABLE OUTLIER OF NAVGEM WHICH UNREALISTICALLY TAKES THE
SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE STRONG RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS LIE WITHIN A 50NM ENVELOPE AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO 100NM
AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE, JUST NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH ONCE AGAIN NAVGEM IS AN
UNREALISTIC OUTLIER, INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR-TYPHOON
STRENGTH. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM AND THE GFS DECAY-SHIPS, THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE LIES BELOW THE CONSENSUS MEAN. AS A RESULT,
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES ROUGHLY FIVE KNOTS BELOW THE MEAN
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN