WDXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.7S 108.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 237 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF
DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AN ASSESSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221106Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FLARING CONVECTION ALONG WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. TC PADDY IS A FAIRLY COMPACT SYSTEM AND IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS PASS AND MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE 
AVERAGED BETWEEN MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 221140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC PADDY HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, TC PADDY WILL MAKE ITS TURN
WESTWARD AND WILL START TO EXPERIENCE DRY AIR BEING INTRODUCED FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKENED INTENSITY OF 35 KTS. BY
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. DURING THIS TIME, TC
PADDY WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER AN AREA OF INCREASED VWS, FURTHER
CONTRIBUTING TO ITS DEMISE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
UNFAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TRACK. FULL
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FAVORING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE UKMET TRACK SHOOTS OFF TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT TAU 36, AND TURNS DUE NORTH AFTERWARDS. DUE
TO ITS ERRATIC NATURE, UKMET WAS DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST.
NAVGEM IS ANOTHER OUTLIER SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW). THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AGREEING
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS (ICNW).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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