WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.1N 143.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 473 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DECAY BUT MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH A
RAGGED BUT DEFINED 30-NM EYE. A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST HAS INCREASED THE VWS AND IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR THE
DECAY OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT 
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE (30-
35KT) VWS AND DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID LEVELS. THE CYCLONE IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO 
THE EAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 70 KTS AT 281930Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W (MALOU) WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. VWS WILL BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE
AS TY 25W PROGRESSES ON ITS TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 12, TY
25W WILL BE OVER COOLER SSTS, FURTHER HINDERING ANY FUTURE TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS UNDER THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO 
THE NORTH, TY 25W WILL DEVELOP FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS SIGNALING 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 36. 
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE ETT OCCURS SOONER DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE CORE 
BECOMING SHEARED APART BY THE MID-LATITUDE JET.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO
GFS AND HWRF SHOWING MORE AGGRESSIVE VALUES THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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