WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.3N 142.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 51 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA,
JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL BUT MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE AND ITS
RAGGED BUT DEFINED 30-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE 
OF AGENCY AND ADT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR SUSTAINED 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS OFFSET BY 
MEDIUM (15-20KT) VWS AND DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID LEVEL. THE 
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED STR TO THE EAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 84 KTS AT 280826Z
   CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 280840Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MALOU WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT 
INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12.  AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS, 
AND PERSISTENT DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE 
THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45KTS BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 24, TY 25W 
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE COLD 
BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND BY TAU 48, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WIT AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMIAN IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO 
COALESCENCE WITH THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW DURING ETT.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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