WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.8N 141.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 11 NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
WRAP AND A RAGGED, ALBEIT SMALLER, 30-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL 
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND DVORAK ESTIMATES (SEE BELOW) AND REFLECTS 
THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS OFFSET BY 
MEDIUM (15-20KT) VWS AND DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID LEVEL. THE 
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED STR TO THE EAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 82 KTS AT 280347Z
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 280540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MALOU WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 
A PEAK OF 90KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS, 
AND PERSISTENT DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE 
THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, TY 25W WILL BEGIN 
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24 AS IT ENTERS THE 
BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND BY TAU 48, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE 
COLD CORE LOW. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO COALESCENCE WITH 
THE GRADIENT WIND DURING ETT.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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