WDPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) 
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.0N 109.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 185 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY,
VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE COMPOSITE 
RADAR LOOP DEPICT A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF SYMMETRICAL, DEEP
CONVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
DECAY AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
VIETNAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE OBSCURED AND RAGGED NATURE OF THE LLCC IN EIR AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
30 KTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ADT AND SATCON VALUES WHICH ARE BOTH AT 
34 KTS. HOWEVER, SHORE AND SHIP BASED OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA AGREE
WITH THE LOWER INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS,
ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS IMMINENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 34 KTS AT 261348Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 261740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 6
AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO TERRAIN
INTERACTION AND IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEAST
CAMBODIA BY TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH HWRF 
INDICATING STRONGER INTENSITY OVER 20 KTS WELL AFTER LANDFALL. 
OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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