WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.7N 139.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
STEADILY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE AND SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE, WITH BANDS OF 
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
THE PGTW FIX LOCATION AND A 261702Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE 
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INDUCED BY A BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF JAPAN AND LOW VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 261653Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 261910Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 25W (MALOU) WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
INTENSIFY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS FURTHER TO THE 
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AT THIS TIME, TS 25W WILL BEGIN 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS COOLER SSTS AT 
APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES N AND FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 25W WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72 AS 
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED UNDER A 500 MB TROUGH AND DEVELOPS FRONTAL 
CHARACTERISTICS.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE DUE TO LOW DISAGREEMENT OF THE CONSENSUS FORECAST
MEMBERS. AT TAU 24, THERE IS A 25 NM SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, 
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 130 NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO STRONG
AGREEMENT AMONG CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE COTI CONSENSUS MEMBER 
BEING AN AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH HIGHER INTENSITY VALUES THROUGH TAU 
60.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
NNNN