WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.7N 138.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 348 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH A BRIEF APPEARANCE OF A RAGGED EYE DUE TO DRY AIR
BECOMING INGESTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE GIVEN THAT
PREVIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE LAST WARNING CYCLE
SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTUAL LLCC IS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE RAGGED
EYE FEATURE. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS FILLING
WITH FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF MULTIAGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 252204Z
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 252340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 25W (MALOU) HAS ROUNDED THE
RIDGE AXIS AND BEGUN TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A
BAROCLINIC LOW EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF HONSHU IS BEGINNING TO
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A GREATER INTENSIFICATION
RATE THAN FORECAST OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. A CONTINUED STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR TERM, AND
TS 25W IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL COMMENCE JUST PRIOR TO
TAU 72 AS TS 25W TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATRES WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GIVEN THE INTENSITY AND SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE LATE-SEASON BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF OF THE COAST OF
JAPAN, TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
TROPICAL STORM 25W (MALOU) WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 24. THE CROSS-
TRACK SPREAD OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS REMAINS BELOW 170 NM THROUGH 
TAU 96, WITH NAVGEM AS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS CLOSELY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE ALONG-
TRACK ERRORS POSE MORE OF A CHALLENGE AS TS 25W ACCELERATES DURING 
ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT, AND THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
CLOSELY. HOWEVER, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH
TAU 36 DEPICTS A HIGHER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 25W SHOULD REACH A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 72, WITH RAPID WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EAST OF HONSHU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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