WDIO31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.1N 58.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 222 NM NORTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: THE STRUCTURE OF TC 03B, HAVING DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST DAY, HAS ROARED BACK TO LIFE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, ESTABLISHING A COMPACT (85-NM) CORE WITH A TENUOUS, VERY SMALL EYE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWED THAT BY 030500Z, A NEARLY PINHOLE (5-7 NM) EYE HAD DEVELOPED, THAT WHILE CLOUD-FILLED WITH AN EYE TEMP OF -20C, WAS STILL A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM EVEN THREE HOURS AGO. THE LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY PRECLUDES AN ASSESSMENT OF THE VORTEX TILT, BUT THE EYE LOOKS BETTER THAN IT HAS AT ANY TIME PREVIOUS TO THIS, AND WITH CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATING SHEAR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IT IS LIKELY THE CORE VORTEX HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THUS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE COMPACT EYE FEATURE. AS EXPECTED WITH A DEVELOPING PINHOLE EYE, ADT WAS STRUGGLING A BIT TO TRACK IT, BUT LATCHED ON BY 0615Z, WITH AN ACCORDANT INCREASE IN THE RAW ADT ESTIMATE, UP TO T4.1, OR ABOUT 62 KNOTS, WHILE THE CI REMAINED AT T3.5 (55 KNOTS). THE JTWC SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE HOWEVER WAS INCREASED TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS), AND IS CONSIDERED MORE REPRESENTATIVE IN LIGHT OF THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING EYE. THUS THE JTWC BEST TRACK INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE ENVIRONMENT HAS VERY OBVIOUSLY IMPROVED. SSTS ARE CONTINUING TO WARM, NOW NEAR 31C BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SST ANALYSIS, WITH AN EVEN WARMER TONGUE OF 32C WATER ALONG THE COAST OF OMAN. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS, AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY, THE 200MB ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED TO THE EAST, THUS ALLOWING FOR AN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND MORE INTENSE OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD. AS WELL, JTWC UPPER-LEVEL HAND ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY SMALL POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX, PROVIDING GOOD, ALBEIT SPATIALLY LIMITED, OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. LASTLY, WHILE MOVING THROUGH A VERY GEOGRAPHICALLY CONFINED REGION SURROUNDED BY DRY, DUSTY AIR THAT HAS CHIPPED AWAY AT THE MARGINS, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SOLID CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE WHICH IS FEEDING DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS FROM 030549Z. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 030545Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL NORTHEAST COAST OF OMAN, IN THE VICINITY OF AL SUWAYQ AROUND TAU 12. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM THAT DESCRIBED ABOVE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TIME THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINING OVER WATER. THUS IF THE CORE VORTEX CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND CONTINUE TO FIGHT OFF SOME EXPECTED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTLINE, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY A BIT MORE BEFORE REACHING LAND. THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS AT LANDFALL, WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER PEAK BEFORE TAU 12. ONCE ASHORE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE IN THE EMPTY QUARTER BY TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER AS THE VORTEX DISSIPATES. ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE MEAN, WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS A FLATTER, MORE WESTWARD TRACK, WITH LANDFALL ABOUT 25 NM FURTHER UP THE COAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH HWRF CONTINUING ITS AGGRESSIVE TREND, SHOWING A PEAK AT TAU 12 OF OVER 90 KNOTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEADY OR WEAKENING TREND THROUGH LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE HWRF, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN