WDIO31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB) 
WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.3N 59.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 236 NM NORTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS STRUGGLING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM
CENTER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 06B HAS DEGRADED, HOWEVER A POCKET OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS SUSTAINED NEAR THE CENTER, MOST LIKELY FUELED BY
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF OMAN, SUGGESTING
THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG AND THE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS MAY NOT HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED OFF OF THE PGTW FIX
POSITION AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KTS). THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY THE LAND INTERACTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. CURRENT
GLOBAL MODEL FIELD CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST DRY INTRUSION INTO THE
SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING INTENSITY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 4.0 KTS AT 0015ZZ

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: TC 03B IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD, THE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD JUST BEFORE LANDFALL IN OMAN. DESPITE THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUSTAIN
THE INNER CORE OF TC 03B AT A 65 KT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12.
AFTERWARDS, THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE OUTER LOWER
LEVEL WIND FIELD MOVES FURTHER OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
OVER LAND, WEAKENING TO 30 KTS BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A WESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE LANDFALL, WITH A 40 NM
CROSS-SPREAD AT THE COAST OF OMAN. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING ONLY A 5 KNOT INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR STEADILY DECREASING IN INTENSITY BEFORE A
LANDFALL. THE EXCEPTION IS HWRF, WHICH RAPIDLY INCREASES THE SYSTEM
TO 105 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HWRF HAS BEEN FORECASTING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, BUT NO
INDICATIONS OF RI HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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