WDIO31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB) 
WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.3N 60.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 245 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 03B
BEGINNING TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP, SUSTAINED CONVECTION WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING LAND INTERACTION NOW BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. EIR ALSO SHOWS THAT TC 03B HAS STARTED TO
TRACK SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, A
DEPARTURE FROM ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN EIR AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW FIX POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. OF NOTE, ADT
IS CURRENTLY AT A CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) OF 4.5, WITH A FINAL T OF
3.9 BUT A RAW T OF 2.0 LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADT. TC 03B IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY INCREASING LAND INTERACTION
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 4.5 KTS AT 1915Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD,
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN
TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL IN OMAN. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK HAD TC 03B NOT TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL
ABOUT TAU 18. HOWEVER, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EIR CLEARLY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS MINOR CHANGE
IN TRACK WILL SHORTEN THE SYSTEM'S TIME OVER WATER, WHICH ALLOWS
LESS TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KTS
JUST BEFORE LANDFALL AT TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, LAND INTERACTION WILL
RAPIDLY DEGRADE THE SYSTEM TO 30 KTS BY TAU 48. 


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A WESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE LANDFALL, WITH A 45 NM
CROSS-SPREAD AT LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24. HOWEVER, SINCE NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AT LANDFALL. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS NOW LESS SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH
HWRF UNREALISTICALLY SHOWING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, PEAKING AT 95 KTS AT TAU 12. THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW
EITHER MINOR INTENSIFICATION OR ARE STAGNANTLY FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
WEAKENING AT LANDFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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