WDIO31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.9N 62.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 252 NM WEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION WITH 25 NM NOTCH FEATURE AT THE CENTER WHERE AN EYE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITHIN THE NOTCH FEATURE IN EIR AND SUPPORTED BY AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 012146Z 36GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 65 KTS. TC 03B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF OMAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AROUND TAU 24, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN OMAN JUST BEFORE TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS TO BE SUSTAINED UNTIL TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SURROUNDING LAND MASSES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS FROM LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A 150 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AT LANDFALL TIME AND MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. MODELS ARE ALSO IN POOR AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY. HWRF AND CTCI CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM, PEAKING THE INTENSITY AT 87 AND 77 RESPECTIVELY, WHILE OTHER MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 12. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN