WDIO31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB) 
WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.7N 63.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 218 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND FEEDER BANDS
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 011733Z ASCAT-B IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
CIRCULATION WITH 50 KT WINDBARBS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION ON
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTER AND 40-45 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE CENTER. TC 03B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 1800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF OMAN UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AROUND TAU 36, AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST, IT WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS OMAN AND MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS BY TAU 12, BUT INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND DRY AIR
INTRUSION FROM THE SURROUNDING LAND MASSES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 45 KTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL AND
FURTHER DEGRADE TO 20 KNOTS FROM LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 96.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A 140 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL AND FURTHER DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY, ALL SHOWING A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PEAKING AROUND 60-65 KTS AROUND TAU 12
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE ONLY OUTLIER IS COTI WHICH SHOWS A REINTENSIFICATION AFTER
LANDFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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