WDIO31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (GULAB) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.3N 63.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 279 NM EAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) UNDER DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT POLEWARD TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE TO REFLECT THE NOTABLE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND A MEDIUM EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 011145Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC GULAB WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OF OMAN UP TO TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARD, AS THE STR BUILDS, IT WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OMAN, MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF MUSCAT AROUND TAU 54. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KTS AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD, DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE MIDDLE EAST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE DESERT LANDSCAPE OF OMAN WILL ACCELERATE ITS DEGRADATION LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS DIVERGE TO 350+ NM AS THEY LOSE THE VORTEX IN THE DESERT LANDMASS, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UP TO TAU 72 ONLY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN