WDIO31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (GULAB) WARNING 
NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.0N 64.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 183 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY, WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
EVOLVING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EVOLVING EYE AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN LLC FEATURE IN
THE 010330Z ASCAT-A BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE TO REFLECT
THE NOTABLE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND A MEDIUM
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 010615Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC GULAB WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OF OMAN UP TO TAU 48
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARD, AS THE STR
BUILDS, IT WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OMAN,
MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF MUSCAT AROUND TAU 60. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KTS AT TAUS
36-48. AFTERWARD, DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE MIDDLE EAST WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE DESERT
LANDSCAPE OF OMAN WILL ACCELERATE ITS DEGRADATION LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS DIVERGE
EXCESSIVELY AS THEY LOSE THE VORTEX IN THE LANDMASS, LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UP TO TAU 72
ONLY.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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