WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.1N 141.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 204 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 41 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EYE ON THE EDGE OF CLOSING IN ON ITSELF
WITH FEEDER BANDS CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE
EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATE VALUES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE,
DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
TY 20W HAS BEGUN TRACKING OVER A REGION OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
WITH COLD DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 96 KTS AT 302154Z
   CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 302340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: COLD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE WITH CONTINUED COLD DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 24, IT WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY TAU 36 IT WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A 50-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT
PASSES TO THE EAST OF HOKKAIDO. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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