WDIO31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (GULAB) WARNING 
NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.8N 64.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 359 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON TURNING IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL
FAVORABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY PRODUCING
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 302340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARABIAN SEA
UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 72 IN NORTHERN OMAN. TC 03B IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36
DUE TO A SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR, MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTERWARDS,
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 03B WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS OMAN, WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION OVER THE
DESERT ENVIRONMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SOLIDIFY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET ENSEMBLE, WHICH SHOWS TC 03B TRACKING AS A
QUASI-STATIONARY SYSTEM IN A COL EAST OF OMAN. DISREGARDING THE
OUTLIER, CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS CURRENTLY 100NM AT TAU 48, WITH
ALONG TRACK SPREAD STILL APPROXIMATELY THE SAME. THERE IS OVERALL
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FOR TC 03B GIVEN THE COMPETING
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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