WDIO31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (GULAB) WARNING 
NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.7N 65.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 151 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI,
PAKISTAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EARLIER 301457Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 1945Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FIRST WARNING IN NEW BASIN

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARABIAN SEA
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AT TAU 72 IN NORTHERN OMAN. TC 03B IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48
DUE TO A SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR, STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTERWARDS,
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 72, TC 03B WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS OMAN, WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION OVER A
DESERT ENVIRONMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RECENTLY IMPROVED, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET ENSEMBLE, WHICH SHOWS TC 03B TRACKING AS A
QUASI-STATIONARY SYSTEM IN A COL EAST OF OMAN. DISREGARDING THE
OUTLIER, CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS CURRENTLY 100NM AT TAU 72, WITH
ALONG TRACK SPREAD APPROXIMATELY THE SAME. THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FOR TC 03B AS THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING WITHIN THIS
BASIN AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS GAINING A GRASP OF THE SYSTEM.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COMPETING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS MAKE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AS IT APPROACHES THE ARABIAN
PENINSULA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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