WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 29.2N 138.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 373 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS  A
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A LARGE, RAGGED BUT DEFINED 50-NM EYE.
FEEDER BANDS ARE SLOWLY UNRAVELING AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
CONTINUED TO LOOSEN AS CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED UP. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE VALUES AND TRENDS AND REFLECTS THE
GRADUAL DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND MEDIUM RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET 
BY THE INFLUX OF NEAR SURFACE COLD DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE 
NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF 
THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 301240Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SLOWLY DEGRADE WITH CONTINUED COLD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
DECREASING SSTS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, 
BY TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY TAU 
48 WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 50-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND 
FIELD AS IT PASSES 300+ NM TO THE EAST OF HOKKAIDO. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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